Who will be left?

Looking for trends is for me a typical activity during the early days of the new year. One thing that really strikes me is the ever ongoing trend of consolidation in the IT-industry. After the December announcements around Business Objects and Cognos, we started already of with Microsoft buying Fast and rumors for more like Wipro and CAPGemini or Microsoft and Logitech.
Who will be left by 2012? This is my 2-cents glass ball prediction.

The mastodons
The IT-world will be ruled by 4 worldwide mastodons: real IT-warehouses where you can buy everthing form a server to an ERP-implementation. My candidates are:

  • Tata: owning HP and EDS
  • IBM: owning Oracle and LogicaCMG
  • Microsoft: owning SAP and Accenture
  • Wipro: owning Sun, CAPGemini, Compuware and AtosOrigin

Forget the names by the way, don't even be surprised this will be ruled by weird named holdings funded with Chinese money.

The regional players
There will be always room for large local or regional players. Either bound by language or local heritage (application providers for local government) or just because they flourish through customer intimacy and creative pricing.

The technology plug-ins
These are companies that have interesting technology or solutions that can plug-in on the common infrastructures. Not big enough to be bought by the mastodons, indirectly grow the mastodons because they emphasize their core products or even resell it.

The innovators
Young companies, start-ups, garage dreams that invent what is not there yet. Often funded indirectly by the mastodons through Venture Capital (VC), these companies die or are bought depending on their success and form the backbone of the never ending renewal of the IT industry.

Missed your favorite name above? There are too many to chose from. Let me know and I give you a personalized prediction!

hans[DOT]van*DOT*nes@results2match(DOT)com (a.k.a. Madame Byte)

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